Sunday, April 29, 2012

3 Years Later

“The industry could grow 30 to 40 percent a year for the next 20 years and it still won’t amount to a hill of beans in terms of energy production.” 
Jesse Pichel, circa April 2009

Funny thing about growth... In 2008 the worldwide demand for photoelectrics was 6 GW. If you project this level of demand 20 years into the future at a 35% growth rate (the middle of Pichel's range) you end up with 2425 GW of capacity in 2028. This capacity would be able to supply around 10% of the expected worldwide electricity demand. Maybe Pichel is being quoted out of context here? It's hard to see how someone would characterize 200 billion dollars worth of electricity as a hill of beans. 

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