Friday, May 17, 2013

CO2 vs Snozberries

The effort to reduce CO2 emissions is secondary to the effort to reduce the costs of CO2 free technologies like wind, solar and efficiency. The CO2 clowns have got to hang it up and shut up and stop being hysterical scare crows. We live in a capitalist world... Capitalists don't care about the environment. We care about competitiveness. CO2 is a secondary concern if we can engineer wind, PV, efficiency and energy management into cheaper sources of electricity than coal, nuclear, gas et cetera. CO2 is essentially irrelevant if a non-CO2 sources of power are cheaper than CO2 sources of power. Its the basic argument for nukes just different. i.e. If nukes were cheaper than coal we wouldn't have a CO2 problem. Here's my thinking... Focus on pollution if you want to stick it to coal. That shit is nasty - mercury, NOx, SOx, particulate and all sort of other bad stuff. Fuck coal with the EPA and call it a day.

It's gotten ridiculous how big the writing is on the wall. Big letters. 

Average PV efficiencies are trending at 15ish percent currently. Efficiencies will ratchet up to 20% plus over the next decade. A 33% improvement in efficiency will be accompanied by a >33% improvement in costs. Big time wow stuff. This ain't the 70's. We've got lots of data on long term learning curves and such. Meanwhile the conventional players have their costs going up. The trends are crossing. Gay acceptance trends, Pot acceptance trends and Wind/Solar competitiveness trends are all crossing. Liberal hippy paradise here we come.

I think the all of the above energy policy espoused by Obama and his DOE is silly political posturing. I prefer a best of the above policy.
Nuclear doesn't make the cut so it's cut.
Carbon capture doesn't make the cut so it's cut.
Offshore wind doesn't make the cut so it's cut.
CSP doesn't make the cut so it's cut.
Storage doesn't make the cut so it's cut.
PV, Wind, Efficiency and Management make the cut - keep them. 

That's how it breaks down. Lux and IMS and Willy Wonka Energy Analysis Factory can write all the goofy reports they want about how storage or concentrating solar or wish energy or whatever else is going to become a fictional multi-billion dollar biz. It's bogus Snozberry flavor of the month garbage. Fundamentals and trend analysis tell us this.

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