A fellow by the name of Kollector coined this thumbrule...
The installed cost of the photoelectric set should not exceed the ten year payout of the feed-in tariff.
Example: A set that delivers 850 kWh/kWp in its first year will deliver approximately 9700 kWhs/kWp over ten years of work. The following examples give a rough picture of how this thumb rule predicts installed costs will trend between now and the beginning of 2011.
--If the value of the feed in tariff is 39 cents/kWh (current FiT) the installed cost should not exceed 8275 kWhs x .39 cents/kWh = 3227 €/kWp.
--If the value of the tariff is 33 cents/kWh (FiT as of July 1st) the installed cost should not exceed 8275 kWhs x .33 cents/kWh = 2730 €/kWh.
--If the value of the tariff is 26.5 cents/kWh (projected FiT as of Jan 1st, 2011) the installed cost should not exceed 8275 kWhs x 26.5 cents/kWh = 2193 €/kW.
With Chinese panel cost falling under a euro per watt it looks possible to achieve installed prices in Germany of under 2200 €/kW. One interesting question to ponder goes something like: will sunnier markets outside of Germany start producing higher rates of return for PV investment such that Germany no longer drives the market clearing price of panels?
Another interesting question is, how will Germany transform the FiT structure once grid parity is reached (installed costs of 2200-ish €/kW). Will the self-consumption premium result in smaller PV sets compared to the oversized 10 kW+ sets that have become common? Will batteries come into common use? Hmmm... Neglecting the cost of input energy and assuming a daily charge/discharge cycle, what are the LCOE for batteries over their lifetimes? Something for the EV car guys to deal with.
Showing posts with label photovoltaic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label photovoltaic. Show all posts
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Price Breakdown of a Photoelectric System
Here's a price breakdown for a 12.3 kWp system in Germany. Prices are in Euros and are pre-tax.
German Panels - 2.02 Euro/Watt
Inverters - .33 Euro/Watt
Racking - .156 Euro/Watt
Cabling - .038 Euro/Watt
Mechanical installation labor - .195 Euro/Watt
Electrical installation labor - .068 Euro/Watt
Surge Protector - .012 Euro/Watt
Total - 2.819 Euro/Watt
Note: Total with Chinese panels (Yingli) - 2.455 Euro/Watt
15.12 kW
Installation cost - .30 Euro/Watt
German Panels - 2.02 Euro/Watt
Inverters - .33 Euro/Watt
Racking - .156 Euro/Watt
Cabling - .038 Euro/Watt
Mechanical installation labor - .195 Euro/Watt
Electrical installation labor - .068 Euro/Watt
Surge Protector - .012 Euro/Watt
Total - 2.819 Euro/Watt
Note: Total with Chinese panels (Yingli) - 2.455 Euro/Watt
15.12 kW
Installation cost - .30 Euro/Watt
Learning Curves, Levelized Costs and lots of Rambling
An important tool in the study of photovoltaics is the Learning Curve (AKA: Experience Curve). See Gregory Nemet's excellent work (1,2) for a primer on the subject. I've built an excel based learning curve simulator that can be downloaded here.
If you want to guesstimate the future cost of photoelectrics, a learning curve analysis is a good start. If you want to translate the future costs of photoelectrics into the future costs of photoelectricity then use the output of the learning curve calculator as an input into the levelized electricity cost calculator. The result is what's known in professional circles as a scientific wildass guess (SWAG) - on the street it's known as mathematical masturbation.
Current Production Costs
The current best of breed PV companies can produce crystalline photoelectric panels for $1.30/Watt. These costs are broken up into two parts: silicon costs (i.e. polysilicon cost) and non-silicon costs (i.e. wafer, cell and module processing costs).* Silicon and Non-silicon costs are around 70 and 60 cents/watt respectively (March 2010). These costs can be further broken down into...
Polysilicon
Crystalline PV panels are made from polysilicon. Polysilicon is the same material used to make computer chips. In fact, scrap polysilicon from the computer industry has been the primary feedstock supply to the PV industry until relatively recently.
The expansion of the PV industry throughout the 1990s led many observers to note that the supply of scrap poly was going to run short of demand in the early part of the millennium - this is exactly what happened. The same observers noted that the supply crunch was going to lead to higher silicon prices but most everyone underestimated how high the prices would go. Why did they guess low? Short answer: the success of Germany's Feed-in tariff.
Anyways, the silicon crunch led to extremely high silicon prices and a commiserate boom in new polysilicon refining capacity. As a result the current polysilicon environment is one of glut and falling prices. The guessing game we currently face is figuring out how far and how fast polysilicon prices are going to come down. Further down the rabbit hole we go...
There are two types of refineries used to make polysilicon. Siemens process based refineries and Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) type refineries. The historical cost of production for Siemens refineries is around $25 to $30/kg while FBR plants have production costs a smidge under $20/kg. This begs the question, why isn't everyone building FBR plants? My gut feeling is that expanding Siemens based silicon production over the last few years was the quickest means to an end. FBR, while superior from a costs standpoint, was new and therefore riskier from a deployment standpoint.
So... My guess for polysilicon. Contract poly prices are going to come down to $30/kg in the next few years and approach $20/kg within 10 years. Fluidized bed reactors should start to dominate new refining plant construction in the medium term.
Wafer Processing Costs
Best of breed (Renesola, LDK) wafer processing costs are currently a little over 30 cents/Watt. These costs are expected to come down to 25 cents/Watt in the near term based on increased scale and improved manufacturing.
*The exact definitions of silicon and non-silicon costs vary by manufacturer. For example, Yingli and Trina define the terms as I have above. Suntech on the other hand includes wafer processing costs in their definition of silicon costs.
If you want to guesstimate the future cost of photoelectrics, a learning curve analysis is a good start. If you want to translate the future costs of photoelectrics into the future costs of photoelectricity then use the output of the learning curve calculator as an input into the levelized electricity cost calculator. The result is what's known in professional circles as a scientific wildass guess (SWAG) - on the street it's known as mathematical masturbation.
Current Production Costs
The current best of breed PV companies can produce crystalline photoelectric panels for $1.30/Watt. These costs are broken up into two parts: silicon costs (i.e. polysilicon cost) and non-silicon costs (i.e. wafer, cell and module processing costs).* Silicon and Non-silicon costs are around 70 and 60 cents/watt respectively (March 2010). These costs can be further broken down into...
Polysilicon
Crystalline PV panels are made from polysilicon. Polysilicon is the same material used to make computer chips. In fact, scrap polysilicon from the computer industry has been the primary feedstock supply to the PV industry until relatively recently.
The expansion of the PV industry throughout the 1990s led many observers to note that the supply of scrap poly was going to run short of demand in the early part of the millennium - this is exactly what happened. The same observers noted that the supply crunch was going to lead to higher silicon prices but most everyone underestimated how high the prices would go. Why did they guess low? Short answer: the success of Germany's Feed-in tariff.
Anyways, the silicon crunch led to extremely high silicon prices and a commiserate boom in new polysilicon refining capacity. As a result the current polysilicon environment is one of glut and falling prices. The guessing game we currently face is figuring out how far and how fast polysilicon prices are going to come down. Further down the rabbit hole we go...
There are two types of refineries used to make polysilicon. Siemens process based refineries and Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) type refineries. The historical cost of production for Siemens refineries is around $25 to $30/kg while FBR plants have production costs a smidge under $20/kg. This begs the question, why isn't everyone building FBR plants? My gut feeling is that expanding Siemens based silicon production over the last few years was the quickest means to an end. FBR, while superior from a costs standpoint, was new and therefore riskier from a deployment standpoint.
So... My guess for polysilicon. Contract poly prices are going to come down to $30/kg in the next few years and approach $20/kg within 10 years. Fluidized bed reactors should start to dominate new refining plant construction in the medium term.
Wafer Processing Costs
Best of breed (Renesola, LDK) wafer processing costs are currently a little over 30 cents/Watt. These costs are expected to come down to 25 cents/Watt in the near term based on increased scale and improved manufacturing.
*The exact definitions of silicon and non-silicon costs vary by manufacturer. For example, Yingli and Trina define the terms as I have above. Suntech on the other hand includes wafer processing costs in their definition of silicon costs.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Solar Advisor Model (SAM)
Check out the Solar Advisor Model. Additional weather data can be found here
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Solar Talking Points - Version:17
Short Term Focus Trumps Long Term Vision
Solar power has been sitting on the bench for decades. This sideline status has given solar philosophers ample time to cook up visionary plans for large-scale solar projects. Archetypical examples include the Club of Rome’s DESERTEC scheme, the Zweibel-Fthenakis Solar Grand Plan and the Jacobson-Delucchi Wind, Water and Sun program. These Grand Plans have several generic features in common.
1. Build a Mega Solar Array (MSA) in the desert. There are two general analogies that accompany this first feature of the plan: the Area Analogy that shows how much land is needed to power the planet and the Time Analogy that shows how so many seconds of sunshine equals all the world's oil. Sometimes you'll get a 'look at all these numbers' show - there are some real productions out there. The math-lite version is: The Sun powers the Earth and can power Us too.
Poetry aside:
the Geek love is a strange love
odd hobbies so too
offset are the dreamings
that suffer such fools
hark... what goes there behind yonder shrub? Me!, came a piping reply... Who's Me?, I'm Me... So you're Me... Yep. Come forth... What do you have to say for yourself, Me?
the fool who finds happy
is not a fool at all
so suffer him his foibles
be kind, rewind, freeball
I want to see a commercial with a bunch of cats sitting around drinking beer and talking about football with Texan accents. Throw in a yeehaw or two or three and you'd really have something. Now that's what I'd call entertainment.
lyrics aside:
A boring ready region upon anything we did exposing every weakness how the kid did bye the kid (laughter)
Out in the middle of nowhere they were home at night with friends, psychopathic wads would flash down with a inches of their lives
wicked whoa stuff there...
AND SCENE...
2. Build a Big Transmission Web (BTW) connecting renewable resources to several parts of the country. The song says... High voltage! DONE! DIRT! CHEAP! If only that were true.
Frivolous aside:
Did you know PG&E signed a power purchase agreement for space solar power? That's funny... Not as funny as Hippo Eats Dwarf but still funny. The fact that PG&E signed a space power deal tells me they have no ability to discriminate between good, bad and ugly.
3. Build a Super Storage System (SSS) to handle intermittency. This component of the Grand Plan is generally accompanied by a list of storage options with their hypothetical costs and potentials. What's most important here is that the storage components covers the third leg of the 'money is no object' hat-trick. The acronym for this portion of the Grand Plan was made as if to - SSS - sear closed the wounds this plan would inflict upon us. Truth is, no healing is possible here.
Slick advertising is an integral part of all Grand Plans. Promotional teams work in packs, sampling shiny pictures and slinging slogans. Common highlights include precariously rising populations, energy security and saving the environment. The Manhattan Project, Apollo Program and the Interstate Highway system are often mentioned to inspire our collective have-done-can-do-again attitude. The propaganda is palpable throughout.
The grand plan philosophy with its far off futurescapes is the stuff of fantasy. This castles in the sky mindset is fundamentally flawed. We need to pick our present path with seriousness and keen attention to detail.
Integrating Photoelectricity Gracefully
Solar power needs to play directly to its near-term strengths. Here are some generic guidelines.
1. The economic advantage to end-users needs to be the focal point of all solar promotion. The mantra goes: The choice to go solar is an investment choice.
2. Promotional policies should move away from directly incentivizing installation as steadily as possible. This will accelerate the overall adoption of solar power by placing pricing pressure on manufacturers and installers.
My guess is that Germany can squeeze another Euro per Watt from residential photoelectric system costs over the next 2 years. That would get costs down to ~2.25 Euro per Watt installed.
3. Solar should be deployed such that the need for additional transmission infrastructure is minimized or avoided – end-user rooftop solar is the ideal.
4. Local balancing authorities need to calculate maximum capacity levels for solar on the grid. The levels should be figured so that reaching them will not incur significant network integration costs or require special storage capacity. Addressing the integration costs with an engineering study is the only way to answer the question completely but, in general, it looks like 10% of the grid can go solar without issue.
Photoelectric power needs to be branded. It needs an abfab adman to cast it as a benevolent character with a simple one-two punch message. 1. It works good lasts a long time 2. It delivers a return on investment. Imagine a cartoon showing a smiling Sun shining down on a solar home. The dad explains to his son how the panels work and you see a corny animation of electrons going from the solar panels down to an outlet. The dad flips a switch and smiles. Bam! Sunlight to lamplight. Then he points at the outlet again and says, son, power isn't the only thing coming from the outlet. What else does dad? Cash son... Another corny animation shows a thought bubble with cash signs spitting out of the outlet and into a piggy bank. The jingle would follow, (Bada Bada ba baa-bump!) Saving money with Sunshine!
The goal of these guidelines is simple: For solar to be a broadly cost-effective supplement to the grid around the world. Call this a Stage 1 goal. Too far to fathom go farther goals than this.
Solar power has been sitting on the bench for decades. This sideline status has given solar philosophers ample time to cook up visionary plans for large-scale solar projects. Archetypical examples include the Club of Rome’s DESERTEC scheme, the Zweibel-Fthenakis Solar Grand Plan and the Jacobson-Delucchi Wind, Water and Sun program. These Grand Plans have several generic features in common.
1. Build a Mega Solar Array (MSA) in the desert. There are two general analogies that accompany this first feature of the plan: the Area Analogy that shows how much land is needed to power the planet and the Time Analogy that shows how so many seconds of sunshine equals all the world's oil. Sometimes you'll get a 'look at all these numbers' show - there are some real productions out there. The math-lite version is: The Sun powers the Earth and can power Us too.
Poetry aside:
the Geek love is a strange love
odd hobbies so too
offset are the dreamings
that suffer such fools
hark... what goes there behind yonder shrub? Me!, came a piping reply... Who's Me?, I'm Me... So you're Me... Yep. Come forth... What do you have to say for yourself, Me?
the fool who finds happy
is not a fool at all
so suffer him his foibles
be kind, rewind, freeball
I want to see a commercial with a bunch of cats sitting around drinking beer and talking about football with Texan accents. Throw in a yeehaw or two or three and you'd really have something. Now that's what I'd call entertainment.
lyrics aside:
A boring ready region upon anything we did exposing every weakness how the kid did bye the kid (laughter)
Out in the middle of nowhere they were home at night with friends, psychopathic wads would flash down with a inches of their lives
wicked whoa stuff there...
AND SCENE...
2. Build a Big Transmission Web (BTW) connecting renewable resources to several parts of the country. The song says... High voltage! DONE! DIRT! CHEAP! If only that were true.
Frivolous aside:
Did you know PG&E signed a power purchase agreement for space solar power? That's funny... Not as funny as Hippo Eats Dwarf but still funny. The fact that PG&E signed a space power deal tells me they have no ability to discriminate between good, bad and ugly.
3. Build a Super Storage System (SSS) to handle intermittency. This component of the Grand Plan is generally accompanied by a list of storage options with their hypothetical costs and potentials. What's most important here is that the storage components covers the third leg of the 'money is no object' hat-trick. The acronym for this portion of the Grand Plan was made as if to - SSS - sear closed the wounds this plan would inflict upon us. Truth is, no healing is possible here.
Slick advertising is an integral part of all Grand Plans. Promotional teams work in packs, sampling shiny pictures and slinging slogans. Common highlights include precariously rising populations, energy security and saving the environment. The Manhattan Project, Apollo Program and the Interstate Highway system are often mentioned to inspire our collective have-done-can-do-again attitude. The propaganda is palpable throughout.
The grand plan philosophy with its far off futurescapes is the stuff of fantasy. This castles in the sky mindset is fundamentally flawed. We need to pick our present path with seriousness and keen attention to detail.
Where light steps ought tread the fool looks afar...
Integrating Photoelectricity Gracefully
Solar power needs to play directly to its near-term strengths. Here are some generic guidelines.
1. The economic advantage to end-users needs to be the focal point of all solar promotion. The mantra goes: The choice to go solar is an investment choice.
2. Promotional policies should move away from directly incentivizing installation as steadily as possible. This will accelerate the overall adoption of solar power by placing pricing pressure on manufacturers and installers.
My guess is that Germany can squeeze another Euro per Watt from residential photoelectric system costs over the next 2 years. That would get costs down to ~2.25 Euro per Watt installed.
3. Solar should be deployed such that the need for additional transmission infrastructure is minimized or avoided – end-user rooftop solar is the ideal.
4. Local balancing authorities need to calculate maximum capacity levels for solar on the grid. The levels should be figured so that reaching them will not incur significant network integration costs or require special storage capacity. Addressing the integration costs with an engineering study is the only way to answer the question completely but, in general, it looks like 10% of the grid can go solar without issue.
Photoelectric power needs to be branded. It needs an abfab adman to cast it as a benevolent character with a simple one-two punch message. 1. It works good lasts a long time 2. It delivers a return on investment. Imagine a cartoon showing a smiling Sun shining down on a solar home. The dad explains to his son how the panels work and you see a corny animation of electrons going from the solar panels down to an outlet. The dad flips a switch and smiles. Bam! Sunlight to lamplight. Then he points at the outlet again and says, son, power isn't the only thing coming from the outlet. What else does dad? Cash son... Another corny animation shows a thought bubble with cash signs spitting out of the outlet and into a piggy bank. The jingle would follow, (Bada Bada ba baa-bump!) Saving money with Sunshine!
The goal of these guidelines is simple: For solar to be a broadly cost-effective supplement to the grid around the world. Call this a Stage 1 goal. Too far to fathom go farther goals than this.
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