Recommended Reading

The PV industry at the end of 2012: reasons to be fearful

WOW

Some thoughts on Pricing Trends, Harmonized FiTs and Rural DIYers.

For a  realtime German Solar Pricing Update go here. My informal tracking of the site indicates that prices are still trending down sharply - I'm swagging for a Q4 average price of ~1610 Euro/kW and 1525 Euro/kW in Q1.

One of the things I wonder is why continue setting the FiT rates differently between ground and  roof-mount systems when there's no longer a significant worry of people over-sizing their systems? It seems this previously useful differentiation should be discontinued. If this happens will average costs change due to the influx of small-ground mount systems entering the mix? Will ground mount DIY systems become the new thing in rural areas? I know I wouldn't want to climb up on my roof to drill holes and set anchors and such but if I had some spare land I'd seriously consider pouring concrete and setting posts for a tinker-toy racking system that came with slap n' snap panels. Call the electrician to do the hot work and bing you're photoelectrified.

Shallow with Mac Bandy

We think we’re playing math with evolution. Evolution is playing math with us.  

Can't fix fucked.

The new cartoons suck compared to the old ones.

Bullshit moves slow... Ideas move fast...

Singing poetry to fools won't get you far.

Common Senselessness

We don't know who the guy leading the conga

 is either. We just love to dance! Hey!

"And, of course, if you pay higher tariffs in a feed-in tariff system [like Germany] without a cap, you will get more and faster deployment. That’s just common sense."

Be careful what you write on a blank check. It should be common sense to recognize there is a cap on the FiT program in Germany even if the politicians say there isn't. Consumers will only pay so much for electricity, lip stick, stockings, high heels, hand cuffs etc. Had the FiT architects in Germany not lowered the FiT these last three years with extraordinary unplanned cuts we can imagine there would have been an extra 15 GW of photoelectrics installed. If this had occured it would have added another 5 cents/kWh to the electricity price hikes we've seen already - that's 175 Euro per home per year more for electricity. Those extra costs would have tipped many consumers over a threshold from being for the FiT to being against it. Whether today or tomorrow eventually the added costs lead to a backlash and the system breaks. This is how the world works.

The FiTs in Germany and elsewhere have budgets just like the tax equity market in the US and utility level incentive programs in Florida. Once you realize this you can see that carefully lowering the incremental incentive neccessarily leads to more PE if you can keep the investment attractive.

Marx Brothers Break...

If you divide a dividend by a decreasing divisor you get a larger quotient. Myeah see... Wise up... This is child's play for children. Later on there'll be a lesson in multiplication if  you know what I mean sweetheart. *wink wink* Skedaddle now you and tell all your friends about it.

The only way to simultaneously lower an incentive and keep the investment attractive is to also lower the costs of the underlying product. Fortunately, the predictions of the learning curve have come through as promised - like magic clockwork. Ultimately the goal is reducing the FiT down to where it doesn't impact budgets much at all. Interestingly enough, the math indicates Germany is now in a position to achieve this. If only this were common sense.

Are Photoelectrics the new Solar Thermal?

This question is so 2011 but it's good to see the intellectual elites starting to see the light.

See also: Solar Heat Pumping

Baby Food for Toothless Thinkers

Bloomberg came out with a  a masterpiece of a headline. Yeah...  

Frankly, I don't want to argue for or against global warming. What has that gotten the world? Empty promises piled high and deep. Studies which when stacked could reach to the moon and back. Meetings in far away lands filled with bureaucrats holding hands. Hmmm... There may be a song in there. At the very least a dirty limerick.

To me, time is better spent fighting against NOx, SOx and Mercury pollution from coal plants which you can measure. Time is better spent mandating CAFE standards which again, can be measured. Time is better spent on informing the public about the benefits of efficiency. Time is better spent in a lot of ways.

Global warming is effectively a side show filled with hysterics on one side who want/need a problem to worry about and peddlers on the other selling the masses their junk. If there's a problem fine... Approach it with calm thinking. Global warming rhetoric is buckshot -  a form of media which has turned casual readers/viewers into messy thinkers. The packaging of  the problem is problem in itself - it's incredibly unappealing to me.

What is the cause of Global Warming? Everyone says Carbon and I buy that. Where does the Carbon come from? The basic answer is that it comes from burning coal, oil and natural gas to get energy to do stuff.

To me, the solution to Carbon is to get energy from other places. We should focus on finding and exploiting the best places. There's one and only one clear answer... The SUN! Funny that the source of the problem is the source of the solution. Funny that we see it every day and don't think about it. Funny... Yeah... Fucking hilarious.