Saturday, February 16, 2013

Average Monthly Electricity vs. Energy Prices in Germany - October 2010 to Present

*Average Electricity Prices come from EEX. The Day values come from averaging Hours ending 6 to 18. The Night values come from averaging all other hours.
*Coal sources and assumptions: Price/MT comes from BGR. Energy density is assumed to be 23700 BTU/kg (23.7 mmBtu/MT). Heat rate is assumed to be 8.53 mmBtu/MWh. The graph shows the cost of the Coal to produce a MWh.
*Gas sources and assumptions: Price/mmBtu comes from World Bank Pink Sheets. Heat rate is assumed to be 5.69 mmBtu/MWh. The graph shows the cost of the Gas to produce a MWh.

Spot electricity prices don't tell you what contract prices are but they certainly point you in the right direction. If all my conversions are correct it appears the natural gas plant operators are in a tough spot - nothing that a few thousand fracking wells couldn't fix.

The graph also shows that, despite what the green rags would have you believe, the drop in wholesale electricity prices since late 2010 is likely due to the 25% drop of coal prices over the span.

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