No music means I'm stuck with my thoughts. Mostly screenplay ideas that involve robot puppy bank robbers or genetic experiments between tomatoes and spiders that go hysterically wrong - musicals of course.
Maybe I'm a spider? Maybe I'm a plant?At some point I started thinking about ice boxes. How big was the block of ice? Couldn't be that big. Two liters... maybe four? With PEPE I'm trying to model how load can be shifted from off-sun hours into on-sun hours. I've often wondered why not make a few liters of ice during the day and use the ice to augment cooling after the sun went down. PEPE already runs a basic refrigerator demand model. Today I realized it would be a simple matter to reduce the modelled electricity use at night by a user defined value and shift that into on-sun hours.
Or just an eight eyed Roma with an appetite for man
A tasty delicious hunter on a stalk for yummy prey
Hmm... I don't know... Maybe I'll have Chinese for dinner today?
Let's imagine a typical home could shift .25 kWh of refrigeration load from off-sun hours to on-sun hours per day. A quarter of a kilowatt hour may not seem like much but consider that this amount of full swing battery capacity would easily cost over $200 and stick you with a 20% energy penalty per cycle just to make sure you don't call back. Another way to think about this .25 kWh is to imagine it multiplied over the 40 million households in a place like Germany. This would add to 10 GWhs a day which could potentially allow for the decommisioning of around 500 MWs of coal capacity. This is only a SWAG but this looks like a pursuable idea to me.
Second idea I had today was to realize it's unnecessary to model hourly hot water usage in PEPE because I can reasonably assume an oversized storage tank. This means I can model for average daily demand with a high degree of charging flexibility - a solid ballpark guess would be 5 kWh of flexible daily load that I can play energy management Tetris with.
Between refrigerators and water heaters it already looks like 45% of the production from a typical 4 kW German photoelectric system could be reliably scheduled for on-site consumption - this is before considering the other controllable loads like dishwashers and laundry appliances. It's starting to feel like 75% self-consumption rates are achievable with residential systems that provide over 50% of total annual load. I've never dared to dream of displacement rates this high.