Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Note on German Market

Installs in Germany have reached an estimated 5236 MW through August. Some analysts are expecting lackluster results for September through the end of the year. I think several things could help the German market have a strong 2 plus GW finish to the year.

1. The EEG surcharge for 2013 will be announced by 15 October 2012. The surcharge is expected to jump from the current 3.592 cet/kWh up to 5.21ish ct/kWh. It makes sense that all the hair-pulling press around higher electricity rates could drive some to install photoelectric systems.
2. The lower temperatures and shorter days of fall are likely to drive electricity bills higher. These high electricity bills could push some extra photoelectric demand. In the past we've always attributed the end of year rush to the re-indexing of FiT rates but going forward we may be able to see a cold-weather effect.
3. There may be some last minute September installs associated with the cut-off date for grandfathering of systems on so-called conversion areas. These installs could be in the neighborhood of 1000 MW give or take.

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