Thursday, May 10, 2012

Pasts and Futures


Back in August of 2009, Paula Mints predicted a high side 2010 PV market of 7.5 GW. The 2010 market ended up at 18.2 GW. Paula's high side estimate for 2011 was 10.8 GW. The 2011 market ended up at 30 GW. 

When an expert is this wrong about growth it tells you how extremely difficulty predicting growth is. 

P.S. Paulas' estimates for 2012/2013 are 14.4/21.4 GW. Extrapolating the 2010/2011 error trend suggests  2012/2013 totals of 38/48 GW.

More Past

Here are some predictions from a presentation given by Dr. Charlie Gay in April of 2010. The article also contains a graphic that compares several scenarios with natural gas at various prices - $6/MMBTU up to $14/MMBTU. If the graphic had used current prices of $2.5/MMBTU things would look a little different.

Off topic but a very interesting quote:
A utility in China is very different than a utility in the U.S. so those utilities are able to bring the market along with the manufacturing. Many of them today make their own aluminum, for example, as part of how they do load leveling. Rather than worrying about pumping water uphill for storage, they use that nighttime power to create other products.
Some Future

This report will probably egregiously misunderestimate the next few years of growth but it's got some great data in it.

Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2016

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