Thursday, March 8, 2012

Frogs, Facts and Fiction

We've all heard the poplore anecdote about the frog and the boiling pot of water. Basic version tells of how a frog placed in a pot of boiling water will immediately jump out but the same frog placed in a pot of cool water that is slowly being heated will foolishly allow itself to be cooked. Yum, frog legs. My cousin Jimmy's version has the frog placed in a cool pot of water which is itself placed in a microwave. He was always doing weird shit like that - all the cats and dogs in the neighborhood despised the kid. Good or bad, we did not medicate children when I was growing up... but I digress.

Turns out frogs aren't as dumb as people say they are. People on the other hand remain as dumb as ever. It occurs to me that maybe, just maybe, the Boiling Frog story has been about people all along? Maybe I was supposed to know that all along.

This above chart shows the monthly installations in Germany. The spikes on the chart (End of 2009, Middle 2010, End of 2010 and End of 2011) all proceed FiT adjustments. Note also how the minor FiT adjustment at the end of September 2010 doesn't jump off the page - wonk, wonk, wonk.

If the historical relationship between FiT reductions and installations holds true, Germany will see a lot of installs in February and March. SWAG guess is for over 750 MW in February and over 1.5 GW in March. There's should also be a spike in June before the solar farm FiT rates get adjusted. DIHK (never heard of them) are projecting an amazing 8 GW for the year - wish I had their balls. DIHK must stand for: Damn I have knackers!!!.

What's the lesson here? Sensei say... For calm market use lesson of boiled froggy to set FiT degressions.

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